Ed Bangs has released the mid-year estimate of wolf numbers. The final estimate is made for Jan. 1, and, of course, it has to be lower because the pups are born each April or May..
The wolf population continues to grow, most strongly in per cent terms in Montana, although in absolute numbers in Idaho which has the largest base population of wolves. There are a number of newspaper stories about this now, and a major point of confusion is due to the fact that the 2006 figures Bangs cites below are year end and 2007 figures are mid-year. Therefore, a story in a newspaper on Sept. 22 that says the population growth rate is 19% is wrongly overstated growth because wolves will die between mid-2007 and the end of 2007. Comparisons of wolves killed and livestock killed are also hard to directly compare with 2006 because more will come.
I didn’t realize this either, thinking at first it was mid-2006 compared with mid-2007.
Below are the data and an analysis by Ed Bangs.
TENTATIVE 2007 MID-YEAR WOLF POPULATION STATISTICS- Each year we give a
rough mid-year wolf population estimate for wolves in the northern Rocky Mountains [NRM].
There are no known wolf packs in the NRM outside of Montana, Idaho, or Wyoming. Our
official interagency estimates in our 2007 annual report will certainly be different and much
more accurate than these because of better wolf monitoring conditions in fall/winter and
increased levels of wolf mortality and dispersal later in the year. These figures do give some
insight into the likely trend of the wolf population, conflicts, and control relative to last year.
Overall, the NRM wolf population in 2007 will be higher, wolf control about the same, and
confirmed livestock depredations lower than that documented in 2006.
State Year # Wolves Packs B pairs Cattle killed Sheep Dogs Other Wolves
MT 2006 316 60 21 32 4 4 2 53
MT 2007 394 71 37 48 19 1 1 50
ID 2006 673 69 40 29 205 4 0 45
ID 2007 788 75 41 36 150 7 0 40
WY 2006 311 40 25 123 38 0 1 44
WY 2007 362 33 27 28 16 2 0 45
Total 2006 1300 172 86 184 247 8 3 142
2007 1545 179 105 111 185 10 1 134
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Ralph Maughan
Dr. Ralph Maughan is professor emeritus of political science at Idaho State University with specialties in natural resource politics, public opinion, interest groups, political parties, voting and elections. Aside from academic publications, he is author or co-author of three hiking/backpacking guides, and he is past President of the Western Watersheds Project.
Hmmm. Makes you wonder who is reporting the misleading information…..Ed Bangs or Matthew Brown!
It is very possible that the number of livestock killed is down because more land and livestock owners are taking more of a proactive stance to protect their interests. It does seem that lately there have been many more livestock related incidents as reported on the FWS gray wolf homepage. However, wolves are not dumb animals so it could be that after a livestock owner or FWS shoot at wolves or use other non leathal means that the wolves seem to shy away from livestock. I believe this is the reason for less livestock mortality despite there being more wolves. If this is the case then kudos for FWS and livestock owners for taking a more proactive approach.
Or it could just be more intensive lethal removal of wolves in areas of consistent, chronic depredations.
Note: my corrections above in red font. I’ve made it clear just which dates are being compared. I had it wrong at first.
It is evident that the year’s wolf population will be less than the 19% the Billings Gazette said today.
It is also evident that they are killing wolves at a higher rate this year. The number of cattle killed will up at the end of the year, except Wyoming where it might show a big drop.
Every week, Bangs puts out articles about the latest wolf depredations. While it is usually a calf or two here and 1-10 sheep there, it gives the impression of great numbers of livestock being killed.
Can you imagine if there was even a minor story every time a cow or sheep was poisoned, got some illness, was killed by coyotes, eagles, bears, cougars, or in the case of sheep, “tortoise-shelled?”
Ralph, based on the total 2007 numbers, 5 wolves will kill 1 head of livestock in a year, 1500 wolves total and 300 heads of livestock killed. Pretty paltry numbers.